Risk call generally the probability of approach of a possible adverse event (or events). It is obvious that in practical sense there can come the number of events which is giving in to calculation, one or several of them will be required adverse.
Instruction
1. For example, the sausage factory "Wolf and Semero Co" conceived to bring a new grade of ham to market. Good undertaking, but... Whether is here in general "but" – just those adverse "risk factors"? That to understand it, it is necessary to predict, though as a first approximation what events in general can follow in connection with emission on the market of new ham.
2. The deputy of the main thing for development acted this way: took the sheet of paper, divided into two parts. That part that at the left, entitled "good" that on the right – "bad". Also began to think. What is good – it will be pleasant to buyers. And time so, will arise a rush that is bad because there are not enough outlets. But then it is possible to extend in retail chain stores, it is good. Yes, but will be more expensive... however, it is just possible to renew contracts with clients that is good. Well, the transport is not enough, it is necessary to employ or buy that there are expenses that is bad. On the other hand, with such new ham it is possible to get on a food exhibition and even a medal that is even very good.
3. Eventually took the deputy of the main thing what turned out, and counted the number of points. Good it turned out at it 37, and bad - 32. Total: 69 probable events.
4. Now the total risk calculates by a classical formula of probability: SR = the NVS / the Air Force, where SR – total risk, NVS – the number of adverse possible events, the Air Force – the number of all possible events). SR = 32/69 = 0.463, or 46.3%.
5. The deputy of the main thing thought and solved: and I how many at us the most unpleasant events will count. That is how many will remain adverse events if to remove all dependent events from the list (when favorable is the reason adverse and vice versa). It turned out such absolutely bad events 4.
6. 4 events in the massif of all adverse make 0.125. And consequently, the probability of approach of these events 32*0.125/69 = 0.058, that is the risk is 5.8%.
7. And if to consider that the risk of the most unpleasant consequences belongs to total risk as 0.058/0.463 = 1/8, then everything is not so bad. Also the deputy of the main thing signed new ham "in production".