The futurologist – the modern predictor of the future, but not such as chiromantist or clairvoyant – the forecasts this expert does leaning on scientific methods. The most exact and authentic forecasts concern development of artificial intelligence and alleged planetary environmental disaster.
Who such futurologist and what he is engaged in?
Forecasts of futurologists sound more and more clearly and take the important place in different scientific niches, politicians and businessmen listen to them. The identity of the futurologist is the creative, inspired person who succeeded in the specialty and sees trends of further development. These people always in observation and researches that allows them to do forecasts of the future with high precision.
Science futurology
That the futurology studies – many contemporaries connected with perspective business, advanced technologies ask this question – for these people it is important to know development trends, the success depends on it. The futurology as science is a global process of forecasting of everything that is and Earth and even in space open spaces matters on the planet. Futurology methods:
- questioning, polls of experts – detection of the general opinion on a subject;
- extrapolation;
- correlation analysis;
- probabilistic analysis;
- regression analysis;
- role-playing games and simulations.
Problems of futurology
The most frequent questions of futurology assume answers: as any given trends of economy, environmental management will develop how to change the person and society in general. The main objective of futurologists is forecasting of global scale. In narrower direction of a problem of futurology on the basis of forecasts the following:
- prevention, elimination of poverty and hunger;
- alignment of a demographic situation;
- prevention of wars, environmental disasters;
- protection of the person and nature;
- creation of the technologies facilitating life.
Modern futurology
The main questions of modern futurology concern all spheres of human life, and at the same time many futurologists adhere to the concept of "open future" (open future). According to the theory of singularity all forecasts are dated at most 2050 – it is not supposed "to see" further adequately possible though science fiction writers describe events till the third millennium, but it is hardly evidence-based.
Philosophical futurology
The futurology as the phenomenon arose in ancient centuries, thinkers and predictors tried to argue on the future, to lift the veil of secrecy. The philosophical analysis of the future of a human civilization is under construction on identification of the meanings forming a modern genotype of society and philosophers place emphasis that the mankind has to go on the way of return of former values: to human life and careful attitude to natural resources, differently people on all planet to face direct threat to the existence.
Art futurology
The future of mankind – the futurology of art assumes high-quality changes. The well-known fact that art reflects values of the person, his emotion and aspiration to self-expression. The great popularity was won today by media exhibitions when all works by artists can be seen through projections in space by means of computers. Cinema uses multidimensional images, and new options will shortly be added, the viewer will be able to catch smells. The architecture and very tectonics of the cities to change too – buildings of bizzare shapes will appear.
Genetic futurology
Stages of development of futurology include all aspects of different sciences and human existence and interaction with what is created. Without knowledge of genetics and processes which happen in human genome or animals and plants it is impossible to do any forecasts concerning the future. The futurologists analyzing gene technologies of the next 50 years are inclined to believe that as a result of manipulations with a genome, the person will become a post-person. Clones, mutants and cyborgs – the near future of mankind.
Modern futurologists
These people came to futurology from various specialties, among them there are writers, public figures, sociologists, scientists. The most famous futurologists of the present to whom the whole world listens:
- Dirk Helbing. Is a researcher in the sphere of technologies, sociology and economy. Directs the Living Earth Simulator Project project. It in own way "The Delphic oracle", but is more powerful many times. Helbing hopes to predict wars, financial crises, flashes of epidemics of infectious diseases by means of the simulator.
- Alvin Toffler. Its forecasts are not consolatory. Utopian society, stratification of the population and implementation of total control and pressure upon masses.
- To Mitio Kak. The Japanese futurologist, the author of the sensational best-seller of "The impossible physicist" foretold thought-reading of the person the computer, movement of objects in space by force of thought, transformation of one nanomaterial into qualitatively another that it is similar to alchemical process of transformation of lead into gold.
- Aubree Di Gray. Search of a source of eternal youth by means of bioengineering technologies. According to Dee Gray's forecasts the extension of life on 1000 will become possible in the near future.
- Raymond Kurtsveyl. All its predictions are connected with computer technologies and interaction of the person with artificial intelligence. By 2045 the mother Earth will become the uniform huge computer.
Predictions of futurologists
It is interesting to people to learn that futurologists about the future predict, an age of the person short, and still curiously in what world children, grandsons will live. Not all understand that the futurologist is not a predictor in pure form though there are people with such gift – in general it is the laborious analysis and careful observation of development of trends. Futurology forecasts for the next 100 years:
- Synchronization of the person with the computer. Contact of the person with smart machines – it can be seen unless in fantastic blockbusters, but it is similar, it will become a reality soon, futurologists predict by 2050 introduction in a human body of special computer technologies (chips) of the brain processes enhancing activity.
- Management of weather. Prevention of heavy rains, hurricanes, but there is a probability that it will be applied as climatic weapon to a harmful call of elements.
- Space travel. Already now became possible to the ordinary person to fly with the team of astronauts to space, from the middle of the 21st century the futurologists predict construction of space elevators by means of which anyone can become the space tourist.
- Disappearance of diseases. The famous futurologist R. Kurtsveyl whose forecasts are trusted by B. Geyts foretold that since 2020 many diseases will sink into "non-existence". Introduction of nanorobots in a human body will allow to eradicate diseases in from a rudimentary state.
- Thermonuclear synthesis. By 2100 will become usual, narrow-minded process, it is also active and solar energy will be used everywhere.
How to become the futurologist?
The erudite futurologist – a profession rare and very responsible. Many consider it strange and frivolous. There are no special educational institutions training futurology. In the majority, futurologists are analysts in any given areas. For example, the scientist-demographer analyzing evolution of mankind predicts that in half a century of white people will be less, than other races. The ability to analyze trends of global scale is the main component of the expert of the futurologist, generally those who want to be an expert, study it – through researches of a subject or phenomenon.
Experts of the following directions can become futurologists:
- sociology;
- philosophy;
- political science;
- political economy;
- anthropology.
Books on futurology
The famous writers futurologists sometimes get under the category of science fiction writers though they differ in the fact that investigate on a subject relationships of cause and effect and alleged succession of events in the future. Books on futorologiya to which it is possible to pay attention if is interesting "what there in the future?":
- "Collision of civilizations" S. Huntington. In the book the complete geopolitical analysis and the forecast of development of a terrestrial civilization is given.
- "New cards of the future" S. Pereslegin. Options of development of the world till 2050. The author makes hypotheses of development of economy, society. Probable crises are in detail described: administrative, sociological, ontologic.
- "Space travel" in 2 volumes. O. Bazaluk. Forecasts development of space distances, different planets. Innovative space technologies of the near future are considered.
- "World of ours tomorrow: Anthology of modern classical prognostics" I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada. How will life of people throughout the 21st century develop? Different trends and forecasts of development of technologies and people as look.
- "Future shock" E. Toffler. The book best-seller about the changes and adaptation of the person to changes which are falling down every day the heads of people. The future of mankind is questionable not because of technogenic catastrophes and because of psychological numbness in the face of danger.
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