The future always was a riddle for people. Since the oldest times the mankind seeks to glance forward, to solve a riddle of foreordained, to change the future, seizing the past moment. The future is the future into which the science futurology tries to get.
Forecasting of what expects mankind in the future a predopredeniye and identification of regularities – here what disturbed minds of great scientists and philosophers. From the scientific point of view began to be engaged in forecasting seriously at the end of the nineteenth century. Many scientific forecasts were described in works of George Ermann, Herbert Wells and other scientists. Thanks to their works there was a science which received the name futurology.
Science about the future
The futurology represents a type of science which is connected with prediction of events which will take place in the future. All forecasting is carried out by means of specially developed methods. Scientists who are engaged in futurology are engaged in the analysis of the existing economic, technological and social features and try on the basis of data which were obtained, to draw conclusions on changes which will occur in the area considered by them in several years.
Besides they analyze trends of development of various industries, defining regularities and revealing decisive factors of development. Methods which are applied in futurology bring closer this science to history and forecasting.
Methodology
There are only four methods which since the beginning of the 20th century became an integral part of futurology. The first of them is poll. It is applied to reveal the general opinion of experts of concrete areas of study. Also various types of questioning for achievement of the best result of a research are carried out.
The following important method is studying statistics. The analysis of probable changes which can wait for people in the future in various areas of their activity is carried out.
The third method serves in order that draw an analogy between the events expecting mankind many years later and events of present time. Thanks to this method the scientists can create the scenario according to which they can develop in several years.
In scientific community, except these three methods, also the method of role-playing games is actively applied. It consists in works in groups which are engaged in planning of events of the future. In certain cases futurologists model situations and try to realize them in the game purposes.