The Delfi method – the name happened from the Delphic oracle, famous for Ancient Greek mythology, built by Apollo for receiving predictions. The modern Delphic method is a forecasting of events, the public phenomena, scientific developments.
What does the Delfi method consist in?
To what methods the Delfi method belongs – sociologists answer this question: to expert methods of estimation. The Delphic method unites in itself consecutive actions:
- polls (questioning);
- interviewing;
- brainstorming.
Delfi method stages:
- Preliminary. The group of experts is selected.
- The main. Includes: statement of a problem (formation and mailing of questions to experts), obtaining answers, the analysis and mailing of the new improved questionnaire – so several times, yet will not be reached the agreement of experts in all questions if opinions strongly differ, the procedure is carried out not less than 3 times.
- Analytical. The analysis of the received and agreed conclusions, recommendations.
Authors of a method of Delfi
Advantages of the Delfi method are obvious therefore the multilevel technique is used also in modern society in different spheres. Specialists of the research center for methods of conducting military operations of RAND became authors of a method: Olaf Helmer, Nicholas Resher and Norman Delki. The main task of a method scientists saw forecasting of impact of scientific developments of the future for warfare.
Advantages of the Delfi method
The Delfi method – merits and demerits, as well as in any to other qualitative technique need preliminary consideration before putting into practice. Pluses of the Delphic method:
- it is convenient in application;
- the opinion of all people concerning a question is considered;
- promotes development of independent thinking;
- provides objective studying a question from the different parties.
Delfi method shortcomings
Use of the Delfi method is not deprived of shortcomings, and from the moment of emergence many experts treat a technique crucially. To a shortcoming it is possible to carry the next moments:
- opinion of collective not always true;
- organizers of poll are given big authority, than the expert group – it means that the opinion of a number of experts can remain unnoticed;
- creative decisions which are stated by the minimum number of experts are rejected and not taken into account by analysts though it can be very effective and successful solutions;
- aspiration to opinion of the majority;
- a lot of time is required – one stage can borrow from day to one month.
How to use the Delfi method?
Use of the multilevel expert Delfi method assumes observance of several important conditions:
- questions of the questionnaire have to be accurate and treated by definite answers;
- an opportunity to express answers as numbers;
- experts have to be guided in a subject and have sufficient information;
- answers have to be proved;
- the group of experts has to be stable on the number and structure;
- intervals between tours no more than a month;
- the number of rounds has to be sufficient for acquaintance of experts with intermediate results and justifications.
Examples of the Delfi method, practical use:
- Social sphere. As a result of carrying out pros Minzdravsotsrazvitiye receives answers to questions: with what amount of free drugs it is necessary to provide the population what medical people need more, efficiency degree.
- Economic sphere. The Sormovsky bakery decided to make an experiment, to release the new line of dietary bread. Poll by a method of the Delphic oracle will give answers: what will be demand and profitability from sale.
The Delfi method in the economic analysis
The analysis and forecasting of economic situations faces from a certain sort difficulties:
- it is impossible to predict consequences of the made decisions precisely;
- it is impossible to consider and check all emerging factors;
- among several alternative decisions it is necessary to choose one.
The method of Delfi management of the organizations uses for technological forecasting and the subsequent planning of production. The anonymous questionnaires created on a certain subject are processed by independent experts and the generalized results give to expert group again, further on the basis of the obtained data the forecast is formed. How does the method of Delfi in economy work? For an example it is possible to consider a situation.
One of the sea oil companies needs information when the divers checking platforms under water are replaced with robotics? The group of experts consisting from gathers: divers of process engineers of the oil companies, developers of robots. Experts express the opinion, the initial dispersion of the temporary forecast can be up to 50 years. Answers are processed and again given to experts with a request to revise the results taking into account opinions of other experts. As a result of several stages of poll the interval on time decreases up to 15 years.
The Delfi method in making management decisions
The management decision represents set of the analysis, forecasting, economic justification and choice of the correct decision from a set of alternative options. The method of decision-making Delfi is applied at stages of a formulation of a problem and estimation of ways by means of which it can be solved is one of instruments of the choice and assessment. The method of expert poll Delfi is suitable for the large organizations. All responsibility during decision-making falls on the responsible person – the head.
The Delfi method in sociology
The sociology as science penetrates all spheres of existence of society. Different trends of development of public life need statistical given, estimates - all this helps to predict future changes of the social phenomenon, an event, a condition of process in several years. Social workers use questioning, population polls for collecting initial information which lack the lack of an expertnost can be therefore the Delfi method is used for obtaining more reliable information.
When forming sociological expert group, are guided by criteria:
- occupation;
- age;
- experience by profession;
- education level;
- experience of social and political activity.
The Delfi method in sociology assumes obtaining information and accounting of the following phenomena:
- condition of any certain component of life or party of society: spiritual, political, cultural;
- condition of educational process, health care;
- condition of interaction of social services with the population (veterans, disabled people, needy).
The Delphic method in personnel management
Features of the Delfi method in management process that it is applied in the form of brainstorming or direct, return brainstorming. It is applied in big corporations when it is important to generate the new ideas or the solution of some specific imminent problem. The Delfi method in such cases helps to consider independent opinions and to come by repeated anonymous questioning to a consensus.
The Delfi method in logistics
The logistics operates stream processes in the sphere of providing competitive positions of the organization of business in the market and is interested in delivery of goods to the specific buyer with the minimum costs in due time and the place. Experts in the sphere of logistics solve a set of problems, relying on different scientific approaches and using the practical methods which proved the method of the Delphic oracle Delfi also belongs to such methods. One of global problems of logistics is its improvement within the chosen strategy.
The purpose of the Delfi method to acquaint experts in logistics with a situation in the market on a certain model. Selection of the ideas and opinions allows to solve problems of the following order:
- reduction of storage time of a product in a warehouse;
- reduction of time of transportations;
- distribution of vehicles is rational;
- multiple forecasting of succession of events.
The Delfi method in marketing
Market researches are necessary for clarification of reaction of consumers to any given product, a brand and have to answer the question Why?. For this purpose in marketing the qualitative researches based on expert estimates, both individual opinion of members of expert group, and collective are used. The Delfi method essence in a market research, as well as in some other is under construction on selection of the productive ideas allowing to develop the most successful advance of a product in the market.